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El Nino 80% probable!

Started By jimbodw07 , May 8 2014 10:32 PM
el nino stormy

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#1 Offline jimbodw07 - Posted May 8 2014 - 10:32 PM

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Well since I am a complete weather geek as well, you can probably tell that I've been following the possibilty of an El Nino forming later this year into next.

I am excited, but at the same time weary because in 2010, NOAA and various weather services claimed an El Nino was due into late fall. Well, that didn't go as planned, we ended up having a somewhat neutral year.

 

Either way, ENSO and SST anomalies are showing positive direction towards an El Nino. Yes, we still have the "spring predicability barrier" so we'll have to wait a little more until we can confirm that an El Nino will more than likely happen.

 

El Nino means a wetter winter and spring for California and the southern states. If El Nino does occur, then California along with other southern states may get lots of help with their drought problems. Currently, there is weak evidence that shows a correlation between El Nino and an above normal monsoon season. Bummer! 

 

I've got some links that provide some credibility to what is mentioned here:

One website is run by Daniel Swain. It is a blog that I follow and get weather information from. His blogs are moslty centered at California.

http://www.weatherwest.com/

And of course there is NOAA.

http://www.climate.g...el-niño-brewing

 

And the 80% probable aritcle.

http://www.washingto...ecasts-of-doom/

 

In the end, I'm still going to look forward to this year's monsoon season and winter!


There are two kinds of sufferers in this world:
Those who suffer from a lack of life...and those who suffer 
from an overabundance of life.
-Waking Life

#2 Offline dspdrew - Posted May 9 2014 - 6:47 AM

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Hopefully this happens and it will make for a better anting season next year, not that this one has been bad so far.


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#3 Offline jimbodw07 - Posted May 9 2014 - 9:23 AM

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Yea I agree.


There are two kinds of sufferers in this world:
Those who suffer from a lack of life...and those who suffer 
from an overabundance of life.
-Waking Life

#4 Offline Crystals - Posted May 9 2014 - 12:19 PM

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I wonder how the El Nino will affect central Canada....  Guess we will find out if it happens.  :D


"Always do right. This will gratify some people, and astound the rest." -- Samuel Clemens

 

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#5 Offline WeatherAnt - Posted June 6 2014 - 7:13 AM

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Being a weather geek is fun. :)

 

Since the original post was a month ago, things may have changed. And as for El Nino, it looks on track. Here's an update on the status of the forecast:

http://www.climate.g...enso-discussion


#6 Offline dspdrew - Posted June 6 2014 - 7:30 AM

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Nice!


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#7 Offline dermy - Posted June 6 2014 - 12:04 PM

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I'm sorry if I sound dumb but what is it and what will it do?

 

All it does weather wise here is look ugly and rain[some places south of me have had a lot of tornado action as well] It almost went below freezing last night! :o


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#8 Offline dspdrew - Posted June 6 2014 - 1:20 PM

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It brings rain. Since the Southwest is in one of the worst droughts in history, it's fairly important, especially if you like wildlife, like ants. :)


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#9 Offline Crystals - Posted June 6 2014 - 1:45 PM

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We came close to frost last night, some lower areas did get a light frost.

In Alberta, we will see more rain and moisture.  Which I am glad to see considering how low the water table still seems to be after that 5 year drought we had a number of years back.  But most of it seems to be running off into big rivers and heading to ocean... 


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#10 Offline Cole - Posted June 7 2014 - 7:43 PM

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I would die for some rain this winter,  hopefully lots of it. Don't make me do my rain dance. :P


Edited by Cole, June 7 2014 - 7:43 PM.

#11 Offline dermy - Posted June 8 2014 - 12:24 PM

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It's pouring out here right now.


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#12 Offline WeatherAnt - Posted June 9 2014 - 11:50 AM

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El Nino is a period of unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It's opposite is La Nina - which is a period of unsually cool waters in the equatorial Pacific.

 

More info:

http://meteora.ucsd....ino/whatis.html

 

http://www.pmel.noaa...nino-story.html

 

Effects:

http://en.wikipedia....nal_impacts.gif


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